What about we play the game of pretend?
Imagine you are in an airplane with your champagne glass or aperitif already served in your hand – no you are not dreaming, you are just flying in economy with Air France on your way to Paris. You start watching the latest flight entertainment blockbuster, you feel comfortable with the plane still climbing and skyrocketing at 600 miles per hour. Suddenly you hit some turbulence. What do you?
Most likely you hold on to your drink, hoping not to stain your shirt or your yoga pants. Maybe you tighten your seat-belt. And you wait the turbulence passes. Maybe 5 minutes later, after the captain lowered the altitude of the plane, you continue your trajectory toward your final destination.
A ride on the stock market is very much like a ride on an airplane. You’ll most likely hit turbulence several time. However, you do not jump off the plane just because the wind is strong and the plane shakes. You hold tight, knowing the plane will recover and continue its flight. Same with this crisis and all the precedent ones.
As you already know, the markets around the world have recently experienced significant volatility. The selloff began in China and ultimately resulted in a decline of approximately 9% in a single day. As with most other events of this scale, the “bad news” was spread throughout the rest of the world, ultimately affecting the majority of markets. The indexes in the U.S. and Europe have experienced a decline of between 9 -11% over a 5-day period.
It may be hard, or even impossible, to predict what will happen next with any significant level of certainty. We, therefore, do not recommend that you attempt to time the market or predict the future. Instead, we suggest that you consider the following ideas:
Harvest losses for tax purposes. This technique is indirectly related to the current or any other conditions in the market. Assume that you purchased a high quality investment that is appropriate for your portfolio at $100/share. Due to the recent market turbulence, such investment might have experienced a substantial drop in value, let’s say 10%. As a result, you now have an unrealized capital loss of $10/share on this position. If this investment was purchased in a taxable account, you may want to liquidate it and realize a loss of $10/share. This loss may then be used to offset your other capital gains and reduce your overall tax liability.
Rebalance your portfolio. You may have investments in your portfolio that are not appropriate for your overall asset allocation or life circumstances (e.g. inherited assets or stocks that were purchased by your previous adviser). Perhaps the only reason you still have these investments are large unrealized capital gains. The market volatility may present an opportunity to liquidate such assets at a smaller gain or even loss and help you to re-balance your portfolio toward your desired asset mix without incurring a substantial tax liability.Please talk to an investment advisor to discuss the possible re-balancing of your portfolio.
Keep perspective and think long term. As you already know, you need to take a holistic approach in considering your asset allocation and your investment management approaches. You should take into consideration your unique circumstances when you structure your global asset allocation (e.g. risk tolerance, cash needs, large planned purchases, etc.). Short-term market turbulence should not be an obstacle if you are truly investing for the long term. On the other hand, you should incorporate an appropriate amount of cash reserves or liquid investments in portfolios that are designed to make ongoing or future distributions during turbulent market conditions.
Hope this helps. Sit tight and keep in mind the facts acquired during more than 100 years of market fluctuations: those who abandon ship lose.